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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction
Seasonal forecasts Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU); and separately by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters. Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1981 to 2010) as 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 96.1. NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength, and the ACE index. Pre-season forecasts On December 19, 2014, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued their first outlook on seasonal hurricane activity during the 2015 season. In their report, the organization called for an above-normal year, with 16 (±3) tropical storms, 7 (±2) hurricanes, 2 (±2) intense hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 121 (±36) units. The basis for such included weaker than normal trade winds and significantly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. A few months later, on March 16, 2014, Weather Services International (WSI), a subsidiary company of The Weather Channel, released their first outlook, calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Two factors—warmer-than-average waters in the whole Atlantic, and the likelihood of an La Niña developing during the spring of 2014—were expected to probate high seasonal activity. On April 7, TSR issued their second extended-range forecast for the season, raising the predicted numbers to 17 (±2) named storms, 7 (±2) hurricanes, 3 (±2) major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 138 (±29) units. Four days later, CSU issued their first outlook for the year, predicting activity above the 1981–2010 average. Citing a likely La Niña of at least moderate intensity and warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the organization predicted 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of >119 units. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the United States or tracking through the Caribbean Sea was expected to be about average. On April 13, the North Carolina State University (NCSU) issued a forecast of a slightly above-average season. It predicted 13-17 named storms, 3-7 hurricanes, and 1-4. It also predicted an ACE index of 112 with a 50% chance that the index would be in the range 67 to 141. Seasonal Summary ImageSize = width:725 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2015 till:01/12/2015 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2015 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(0–62_km/h)_(TD) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_(TS) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h)_(C1) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h)_(C2) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208-km/h)_(C3) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h)_(C4) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥156_mph_(≥252_km/h)_(C5) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:19/06/2015 till:22/06/2015 color:TS text:"Ana" from:19/07/2015 till:22/07/2015 color:C3 text:"Bill" from:04/08/2015 till:09/08/2015 color:C1 text:"Claudette" from:07/08/2015 till:15/08/2015 color:C3 text:"Danny" from:13/08/2015 till:15/08/2015 color:TS text:"Erika" from:17/08/2015 till:20/08/2015 color:TS text:"Fred" from:23/08/2015 till:26/08/2015 color:TS text:"Grace" barset:break from:29/08/2015 till:10/09/2015 color:C2 text:"Henri" from:04/09/2015 till:17/09/2015 color:C4 text:"Ida" from:08/09/2015 till:10/09/2015 color:TD text:"Ten" from:14/09/2015 till:17/09/2015 color:C1 text:"Joaquin" from:17/09/2015 till:19/09/2015 color:TS text:"Kate" from:20/09/2015 till:04/10/2015 color:C4 text:"Larry" from:27/09/2015 till:29/09/2015 color:TS text:"Mindy" barset:break from:07/10/2015 till:12/10/2015 color:C1 text:"Nicholas" from:13/11/2015 till:19/11/2015 color:C4 text:"Odette" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2015 till:01/07/2015 text:June from:01/07/2015 till:01/08/2015 text:July from:01/08/2015 till:01/09/2015 text:August from:01/09/2015 till:01/10/2015 text:September from:01/10/2015 till:01/11/2015 text:October from:01/11/2015 till:01/12/2015 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" Storms Tropical Storm Ana On June 16, 2015, thunderstorms from the Pacific Ocean moved into the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center discussed formation possibilities and issued an 80% chance of cyclonic formation in the next 48 hours. In favorable conditions, the area was upgraded to a tropical depression on June 19. The newly formed storm had an organized structure as it moved north in between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. At about 3:00 (UTC) June 20, the depression was upgraded further to the first named storm of the year, Ana. Although sheer winds from the west were increasing, it managed to attain a strength of 55 mph on June 21 in the Gulf of Mexico, heading north-northwest. The storm was very organized for it's size, but was expected to dissipate within 24 hours after heading into unfavorable conditions. Ana made landfall in Perry, Florida on June 22. Ana dissipated shortly after, causing no damage nor deaths. Hurricane Bill A small tropical wave west of the Yucatan Peninsula grew into a tropical depression on June 19. This storm was in perfect conditions, but unlike Ana, this storm was expected to become a rapidly intensifying hurricane. Despite the size, the new tropical storm Bill headed NNW quickly. Bill maintained a strength of 115 mph on June 24, while making landfall in Corpus Christi, Texas. Although Bill had a very short duration, the impact was monumental. When making landfall, Bill flooded nearly four feet of the coastline until about 20 miles inland. The rainfall totals were estimated to about 46 inches in the 5 day impact of the hurricane. Although only the first day involved hurricane-force winds, the rainfall was heavier in the next day. The former-Bill became a historical weather event. Texas finally declares state of emergency on the second day of impact, the Governor not knowing the incredible impact in the Southern counties. Aid was limited during rescues on days 3-5, which increased the death toll. Mudslides and even earthquakes were caused by the extreme rainfall. After Bill dissipated fully on June 28, the numbering began. Scientists and researchers were baffled by this mysterious event. After watching a satellite time-lapse, the cloud cover worked like Lake-Effect Snow, clouds kept forming off of the coast of Texas. After research was completed, searchers estimated about $34 billion in damage, the third highest total, and about 944 deaths. Many meteorologists claim that you should never judge a storm by its size, and this storm had made proved that phrase true. Bill was replaced with Bernie for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane Claudette A tropical wave from the Pacific Ocean forms into a tropical storm about 100 miles east of Florida. The system moved very slowly northeast, but makes a turn west and makes landfall in southern North Carolina. Although damage from wind speeds were minimal, flooding caused a long-term cleanup. Claudette sped up when heading north-northeast again, and reached a minimum pressure of 989 mbar on August 9. Claudette caused a total of $56.2 million in damage and 7 deaths. Hurricane Danny A shortwave disturbance spawned a well-defined low pressure area on August 6 while located about 750 miles southwest of the Azores. The low moved southwestward and developed into a tropical depression on August 7. It moved westward and then northwestward and strengthened into Tropical Storm Danny on August 8. Later on August 9, the system entered a region of weak steering currents, causing it to drift northeastward. In the 24 hours proceeding 1200 UTC on August 9, the storm rapidly intensified. Late on August 10, it was upgraded to a hurricane, before becoming a Category 2 hurricane early on the next day. On August 11, the storm reached Category 3 hurricane strength and attained its peak intensity with sustained winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 963 mbar. Danny was named the second major hurricane of the season. Thereafter, it weakened back to a Category 2 hurricane later on August 12. The storm curved back to the northwest and briefly weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on August 13. The cyclone turned westward on August 14 and resumed weakening later that day, due to encountering wind shear generated by the outflow of nearby Hurricane Leslie. Michael weakened to a tropical storm while accelerating northward on August 15, later degenerated into a remnant low pressure area, still remaining well east of the Azores. Danny caused no damages nor deaths. Tropical Storm Erika A small area of low pressure and organized thunderstorms formed into a Tropical Storm Erika on August 13. The slow moving system made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula about 6 hours after formation. Erika dissipated about 24 hours later, causing minimal damage and no fatalities. Tropical Storm Fred A small area of low pressure and unorganized thunderstorms gathered to form Tropical Depression Six. For about 24 hours, NHC closely monitored the storm to see if the storm could be officially named a tropical cyclone. However, when upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred, it was confirmed as a tropical cyclone. The system was very unorganized, and moved north too quickly to gain strength. Fred did not affect any land. Tropical Storm Grace A large area of scattered thunderstorms was named a tropical cyclone on August 23 by the National Hurricane Center. Although the system appeared to be an extratropical cyclone, it was expected to strengthen to about 45 mph, as a tropical storm. However, the storm degenerated very quickly, and was nicknamed "The Forgotten Storm" of the season. Grace did not affect land. Hurricane Henri A small area of low pressure formed into Tropical Depression Eight on August 29. The storm eventually became Tropical Storm Henri, but struggled in wind sheer, causing the storm to often weaken back to a tropical depression. However, on September 7, Henri came out of high levels and wind sheer. On September 8, Henri became a hurricane, and quickly became a category 2 hurricane on September 9. Henri however became an extratropical cyclone on September 10. Despite the duration, Henri affected no land. Hurricane Ida An area of thunderstorms emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa on August 29. Tracking westward, it developed into a tropical depression while centered about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde on September 4. Shortly thereafter, it strengthened Tropical Storm Ida. On September 5, Ida abruptly strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, with winds increasing from 70 mph to 100 mph in just six hours. However, on the following day, Ida weakened slightly to a Category 1 hurricane. Between late on September 7 and late on September 8, the storm rapidly intensified and peaked as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane later that day. Ida began weakening on the following day and re-curved northward on September 11. The storm turned northwestward on September 13 and briefly threatened the East Coast of the United States. However, it veered northeastward on September 14 and moved rapidly toward Atlantic Canada. By September 17, Ida became extratropical while tracking near Nova Scotia. Along the East Coast of the United States, Ida produced light rainfall, gusty winds, and storm surge. Minor coastal flooding was reported in North Carolina and Virginia. In the former, high tides inundated homes and buildings with 2 feet of water in two small villages on the Outer Banks and flooded a highway. In the state of Virginia, one death occurred when a man was fatally hit by a piece of large debris. Tides and strong winds affected most of the Atlantic Coast until reported as dissipated near Greenland. Ida caused about $225 million in damage total. Tropical Depression Ten A large area of thunderstorms became a tropical depression on September 8. The system was in nearly perfect conditions, but the poor organization caused the inability to strengthen. Ten dissipated after entering an area of high wind sheer. Hurricane Joaquin An unorganized area of low pressure from the United States formed into a large tropical depression, later that day named Joaquin. The system moved quickly ENE, and became a hurricane on September 16. However, Joaquin became extratropical on September 17 after entering high wind sheer. Joaquin affected no land, but caused 1 death from a rip current. Tropical Storm Kate A small area of thunderstorms from the Pacific Ocean formed into Tropical Depression Twelve, later being named Kate. Although headed towards Louisiana, preparations "were not needed" as stated by the Nation Hurricane Center. Although Kate was in almost perfect conditions, the water was too cold to form any more. Kate dissipated only 100 miles off the coast of New Orleans. Hurricane Larry Following the pattern of a classic Cape Verde-type storm, a large and strong area of low pressure associated with broad tropical disturbance wave emerged off Western Africa on September 19. It quickly organized and became a tropical depression during the morning hours of September 20 and soon became a tropical storm, Tropical Storm Larry. It formed farther to the east than most Cape Verde-style storms, being named while southeast of the Cape Verde islands. The storm remained tropical storm status until September 24, and began to organize better. It rapidly deepened and briefly developed an eye-like feature early on September 26, which persisted for about 12 hours. As Larry absorbed dryer than normal air, a process called entrainment, convection decreased, and much of the convection was displaced south of Larry. The storm strengthened into a hurricane, though, late on September 25. After some slight strengthening, the storm rapidly strengthened early on September 26, and became a Category 4 hurricane that afternoon. Further intensification continued although at a somewhat slower rate in the evening before leveling out in intensity the next morning as a strong Category 4 storm. As Larry entered an eyewall replacement cycle, its winds decreased a little, but still maintained Category 4 status. However, almost a day later, the eye became better defined, and Larry continued its strengthening streak again, nearly reaching Category 5 intensity early on September 27. However, several hours later, Igor entered another larger eyewall replacement cycle, this time much more obvious, and weakened down to a lower-end Category 4 hurricane. On October 1, Larry reached a diameter of 505 miles (813 kilometers). As it headed toward Bermuda, the storm fluctuated between a moderate to strong Category 2 Hurricane. On October 2, the weakened storm battered Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. On October 3, the storm grew further to a size of 660 miles. Prior to becoming fully extratropical the storm grew further to 865 miles. During the day on October 3, Hurricane Larry made landfall in extreme southeastern Newfoundland, bringing tropical storm and hurricane force winds, as well as extreme flooding across the island. The storms impacts on Newfoundland were major, but not devastating, with damage stated to be one of the worst ever seen in areas, with at least three people missing. Larry became extratropical east of Newfoundland on October 4. Hurricane Larry's extratropical remnants were completely absorbed by a larger extratropical storm in Baffin Bay on October 6, and the extratropical storm moved into the Greenland glacier at southern Davis Bay, and eventually crossed the Atlantic Ocean to lightly affect Europe. In total, Larry caused 8 deaths and about $750 million in damage. Although said to have been historical, Larry did not get retired. Tropical Storm Mindy A small area of low pressure and thunderstorms was announced as a tropical depression by the Nation Hurricane Center. The depression became Tropical Storm Mindy later on September 27, but attained winds of only 45 mph in the short span. Mindy was absorbed by Larry on September 29. Hurricane Nicholas A rare area of thunderstorms popped up west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The area was quickly announced as Tropical Storm Nicholas, and only a few hours later named Hurricane Nicholas. The span of being a hurricane was very short, but Nicholas continued to impact the land around it as a tropical storm again. Nicholas started moving on October 9, and moved westward towards mainland Mexico. Nicholas made landfall on October 11 and dissipated shortly after. The Nation Hurricane Center states this storm as a rare occurrence that may be seen once every decade or longer. Nicholas caused about $322 million in damage and 3 deaths. Hurricane Odette Hurricane Odette developed from a tropical wave that moved north from the Pacific Ocean, and formed into a tropical depression on November 13. Convection increased, and the system formed into Tropical Storm Odette on November 14. It strengthened further, reaching its peak strength as a Category 4 hurricane on November 18. One of only six rare November Category 4 hurricanes, Odette made landfall on south-central Cuba with winds of 135 mph, one of the strongest Cuban landfalls on record. The system that eventually became Hurricane Odette dropped torrential rains in several countries, causing eleven deaths in the Caribbean and six deaths in Nicaragua, with about $1.3 billion in damage. An additional 133 people were reported missing in the Caribbean and Central America. When Odette went on to affect Cuba, where the storm produced 4 to 7 ft (1.2 to 1.5 m) waves, along with a heavy storm surge. Rainfall amounts up to 25 in (754 mm) were recorded across the islands in the Caribbean. Storm names The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2015. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2016. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2021 season. This is the same list used in the 2009 season. The name Joaquin replaced Juan after 2003, but was not used in 2009. Season effects This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2015 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions). Category:Layten's pages